A deal has been reached in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) for President Joseph Kabila to step down from power, paving the way for the country’s first democratic transfer of power. While the deal is clearly a welcomed alternative to Kabila staying in power indefinitely, and will hopefully avoid further bloodshed, major challenges still exist for the country.
The DRC had scheduled presidential elections in November 2016. According to the constitution, President Kabila was not allowed a third term, but the elections didn’t take place, allowing Kabila to maintain power. Despite months of protests, pressure from the international community and negotiations within the DRC, a deal appeared unlikely to resolve Kabila’s extended term in office. Kabila’s legally mandated term ended on December 19, 2016, but, at the last minute, a power sharing deal was struck to allow him to stay in power until elections can be held in 2018. Many in the opposition opposed the deal, however, objecting to an additional two years of rule for Kabila and the fact that the deal did not guarantee that Kabila would not seek a third term.
The National Episcopal Conference of the Congo (CENCO) worked diligently to strike a better compromise between Kabila stepping down immediately or remaining in power for another two years. Just before the start of 2017, late on New Year’s Eve, a new deal was struck. The new agreement includes assurances that elections will be held at the end of 2017, and, perhaps most important, a commitment from President Kabila that he will not run in the new polls. However, that commitment might be hollow, as President Kabila has not yet signed the agreement himself. Officials within the Congolese government say that administration representatives’ signatures are good enough, but when an individual is attempting to hold onto the highest position in a country, his signature should be on the document.
Outgoing United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon welcomed the agreement and urged the signatories to abide by it. The U.S. State Department issued a statement saying, “By paving the way for peaceful, democratic elections in 2017, this agreement marks an important and historic step for the DRC and the region of Central Africa.”
Moise Katumbi, a major opposition leader and potentially a top contender in the 2017 election, issued a statement applauding the agreement and stated his intention to run for president in 2017. Although that may be challenging, as Katumbi remains in exile outside the country after being detained, attacked, and then sentenced in absentia. Katumbi is accused of selling land illegally and of hiring foreign mercenaries; both accusations are believed to be politically motivated to neutralize Katumbi’s growing popularity. Even the judge who sentenced Katumbi has come out saying she was pressured to convict Katumbi. “She claims the purpose of the trial was cripple Mr. Katumbi’s political future and that she was threatened with losing her job, even imprisonment, if he were not convicted,” according to a BBC news report. After sustaining injuries from an attack, Katumbi sought medical treatment outside the country last year and has not been able to return home. Katumbi’s case is supposed to be reviewed by CENCO, opening up the possibility that his conviction could be overturned, or at least that he be allowed to stand trial. We will have to keep a watchful eye on the future of Katumbi and his ability to step back into the role of a leading opposition figure.
Next Steps
Going forward, the Congolese government and international community must immediately begin working on a process for the elections to take place, and an exit strategy for Kabila. During President Barack Obama’s administration, the DRC was made a priority, with a top-level diplomatic position, the Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, dedicated to issues relating to the DRC and the region. The transfer of power to the Trump administration means a gap in US foreign policy will exist, and the Special Envoy position (a presidential appointment) will likely go unfilled for some months.
President Trump must prioritize the appointment of a new envoy and he must support national and international efforts to ensure elections are held in 2017. Guarantees for Kabila’s security after the elections will need to be in place, and U.S.’s leadership will be crucial in getting Kabila to step down. If Kabila tries to hamstring the election process, lock up or sideline opposition leaders, or violate human rights, President Trump’s administration must be ready and willing to institute new coercive measures against Kabila’s regime.