Despite recent developments suggesting that a transition to civilian rule could be possible, Sudan’s political turmoil is far from over. On Friday, July 5, Sudan’s ruling Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Forces for Declaration of Freedom and Change (FFC), representing the protesters, reached a groundbreaking power-sharing agreement aimed at ending the country’s months-long political crisis. Crowds of jubilant Sudanese celebrated this landmark accord, but the exaltation was short-lived. By the following Thursday, July 11, the TMC announced that it had foiled an attempted coup, and by that Saturday, two days later, protesters were once again taking to the streets and being violently dispersed by security forces. Then, on July 17, the pendulum once again swung the other way with an announcement that a power-sharing document had actually been signed by both sides. This chain of events puts into stark relief the precariousness of Sudan’s peacemaking efforts. Until a true transition to civilian rule is secured, every development must be clarified, the world must remain engaged, and civilian protection must be prioritized above all else.
Recent developments
Last we checked in on the situation in Sudan, negotiations between the TMC and the protesters had completely unraveled, leading to a brutal crackdown on June 3 against protesters by Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the same paramilitary forces operated by the Sudanese government that have been responsible for the genocide and ongoing mass atrocities in Darfur since 2003. The bloodshed sparked international outrage, prompted protesters to institute a countrywide civil disobedience campaign via a general strike, and catalyzed diplomatic efforts that eventually brought both sides back to the table.
The United States joined the diplomatic push to salvage an agreement by appointing Donald Booth as special envoy to Sudan. He joined Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Affairs Tibor Nagy “to engage with the parties” alongside Ethiopian mediator Mahamood Direr and African Union mediator Mohamed El Hacen Lebatt, who have been spearheading efforts to broker a power-sharing arrangement. The U.S. played an integral role in getting its Arab allies to exert influence on the TMC to negotiate with protesters.
For weeks there were a slew of developments tinged with bloodshed. The TMC admitted to orchestrating the June 3 massacre, which resulted in the deaths of over 100 people and dozens of bodies being fished out of the Nile. Sudan’s state prosecutor’s office charged ousted-President Omar al-Bashir with corruption. The UN and the US called for an “independent and credible” international investigation into the June 3 deadly crackdown. The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously to put the brakes on the withdrawal of the joint UN-African Union peacekeeping force in Darfur (UNAMID) during this fragile time. And, the opposition accepted the Ehtiopian proposal for the creation of a civilian-majority governing body: “It will put the country on the right track to create the transitional period that would usher in sustainable democracy,” said protest leader Babiker Faisal.
All the while, protests continued despite extreme violence. On June 30, tens of thousands of people flooded the streets of Khartoum, the capital, and other areas in the biggest protests since the June 3 crackdown. Despite a nationwide internet blackout, they showed up in droves. At least 11 people were killed in nationwide clashes with security forces.
On July 5, Sudan’s military rulers and the main opposition alliance restarted talks in Khartoum. Within two days of hard-won talks the two sides had agreed on establishing a sovereign council with a rotating military and civilian presidency for a period of around three years. General Abdel Fattah Burhan, head of the TMC, said in televised comments that the military council would dissolve with the implementation of the power-sharing agreement. The new leadership council would include five civilians representing the protest movement and five military members. An 11th seat would go to a civilian chosen by both sides. Burhan also insisted that the TMC did not order the violent dispersal of the main protest camp on June 3.
The agreement was hailed by some countries as a breakthrough and cautiously accepted by others as an important first step. The opposition canceled a nationwide civil disobedience campaign that had been planned for July 14, as well as a million-man march planned for the 15th. Political prisoners were released, and the blackout ended. But, less than a week later, the TMC announced that it had foiled an attempted military coup. And, despite a sense of progress in the air, protesters remained skeptical and angered over the deaths of so many fighting for change. On Saturday, July 13, thousands of Sudanese protesters across the country lit candles and released balloons to mourn the dozens killed in the brutal raid on the main June 3 sit-in. The commemorative rallies came even as mediators said talks to hammer out the finer details of the recently agreed-upon power-sharing accord had been postponed, at the opposition’s request.
On July 14, a civilian was shot dead in the town of El Souk southeast of Khartoum, allegedly by the nefarious RSF responsible for the June 3 crackdown. The following day, riot police beat several people and fired tear gas as scores protested in downtown Khartoum against the killing of the civilian. Just three days later, on July 17, the military leaders and opposition signed a deal–still replete with holes, but a deal nevertheless.
What’s the deal?
The two sides have agreed to rotate control of the sovereign council for just over three years. That council will be made up of five civilians, five military figures, and an additional 11th civilian to be chosen by the other 10 members. A military general will be in charge of the council for the first 21 months, then a civilian will lead for the remaining 18 months, to be followed by elections. They also agreed there will be a cabinet in which the prime minister will be chosen by the civilians, and two key posts–defense and interior ministers–will be nominated by the military. The military has been pushing for immunity from prosecution after the protesters’ deaths, but this feature is absent from the signed deal. The agreement does, however, promise an investigation into the violence. The deal still lacks crucial details, including the constitutional declaration, which are expected to be hammered out on Friday.
What’s next?
This is by no means the finish line. We must remember that the military council is a bad faith actor such that even the most promising developments must be greeted with skepticism and restraint. Continued international pressure is vital at this time to ensure that the TMC sticks to the path the agreement has paved.
Fractures on both sides of the bargaining table have emerged. The thwarted coup attempt signifies splintering among the military elite. And, the protest movement may be in danger of unraveling, as well. The BBC has reported that the indefatigable protesters who have taken to the streets day after day definitely wanted much more from the deal. The agreement falls short of their consistent demands for a totally civilian administration. A sticking point for some is that the military will choose the leader of the sovereign council first. The very military the protestors’ steadfastly challenged–and under whom they suffered pain and death on the streets–remains in power for now and will take the initial lead of the interim government. Moreover, the generals could potentially secure immunity from prosecution. There are ample reasons to anticipate that the military will try to outmaneuver civilian politicians during the long transition period. “The first 18 months looks like the military meaning to consolidate power and remain in power and just bide [their] time until they are able to leverage that to remain in control,” said Sudanese political commentator, Kholood Khair.
Jewish World Watch’s field representative in Khartoum echoed this disquiet. “There’s a sense of anger at the leaders of the protests, many people think they are weak.” She anticipates that protesters may soon stop heeding the commands of the opposition negotiators because of this perceived disconnect between the concessions being made and the will of the people risking their lives in the streets. She believes the neighborhood committees may essentially go rogue and continue their protests, even if the FCC directs them to stand down. Our field representative says neighborhood committee members have been targeted because they are the true backbone of the uprising. She reports that four were found dead near a creek in Omdurman, Khartoum’s sister city, and another was found near al-Huda prison, all with signs of torture on their bodies. While not the main leaders of the opposition, these prominent activists are the direct links to the people.
With many details of the power-sharing agreement still in the balance, the risk of deterioration remains very high. In a speech delivered on the night of July 14, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, deputy head of the TMC, allegedly warned the people’s revolution to accept the deal or risk Khartoum’s turning into another Darfur. A number of issues remain unaddressed by the deal, including: mechanisms for ensuring compliance, how to deal with potential breach of the deal, and consequences for those found responsible for violations against peaceful protesters, beyond being barred from sitting on the sovereign council.
Many reckon the junta will use its time at the helm of the sovereign council to consolidate power. Preventing this will require close international monitoring as well as persistent badgering from the streets. “This is not the finish line,” said Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group told the Economist. “It’s probably not even the starting line.” Three years may seem a long time for the outside world to stay focused on a transitional process that is certain, by its very nature, to be labyrinthine and messy. But getting it right in Sudan is vital, not only for the people of Sudan, but for the region.
What about Darfur?
According to the Darfur Women Action Group (DWAG), the power-sharing agreement overlooks the people of Darfur and their historical grievances. “The agreement in its current context gives the military absolute power to control and dictate the first interim period. We fear the military will continue to oppress and kill civilians, particularly in Darfur, South Kordofan, and the Blue Nile” — Sudan’s longstanding conflict areas. The agreement, as it currently stands, also excludes issues of security for Darfuri refugees and internally displaced as well as provisions for the restoration of humanitarian aid to those in Sudan’s still raging conflict areas. Jewish World Watch, DWAG and other human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch, view securing justice for the people of Darfur is essential to any sustainable peace in Sudan. To be seen as legitimate, the transitional government must surrender former President al-Bashir, Ahamed Haroum, Ali Kosheib and Abdulrahim Hussein to the International Criminal Court to face trial.
The combination of sustained international vigilance, particularly from the United States, and support for investigative and justice-seeking efforts will be key to ushering in a new era for the people of Sudan.